{"id":150030,"date":"2024-02-23T20:13:55","date_gmt":"2024-02-23T17:13:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/?p=150030"},"modified":"2024-02-23T20:13:57","modified_gmt":"2024-02-23T17:13:57","slug":"cin-ekonomik-paradoksu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/cin-ekonomik-paradoksu","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in Ekonomik Paradoksu"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00c7in Ekonomik Paradoksu \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fclecek mi? Deflasyonun Kafa Kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 Dinamikleri ve \u00c7KP\u2019nin Piyasaya Para S\u00fcrmesi<\/h2>\n\n\n
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\u00c7in ekonomik paradoksu \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclecek mi? \u00c7KP s\u00fcrekli olarak Piyasaya Para S\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/em> (Foto\u011fraf: \u00c7in yuan\u0131 banknotlar\u0131, Eric Prouzet – Unsplash)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

\u00c7in\u2019in Ocak ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,8 d\u00fc\u015ferek ekonomide deflasyon riskinin devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Ancak 2021 ile 2023 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in para otoritesi piyasaya yakla\u015f\u0131k 54 trilyon yuan (7,6 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Para arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen bu durumun ekonomiyi olumlu y\u00f6nde etkilemedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in ekonomik paradoksu bu \u015fekilde ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi (\u00c7KP) taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan resmi verilere g\u00f6re, \u00c7in T\u00dcFE\u2019si 14 y\u0131ldan fazla bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7indeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasa beklentilerinden daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir d\u00fczeydedir. \u00c7KP\u2019nin i\u015flerin daha iyi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi i\u00e7in verileri manip\u00fcle etti\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ger\u00e7ek tablonun daha da korkun\u00e7 olmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00c7in ekonomisi, Covid d\u00f6nemindeki maliyetli ve ac\u0131mas\u0131z karantinalar\u0131n etkisinden hala kurtulamad\u0131. Bunun yerine, pandemiden sonra da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe devam etti<\/a>. Ancak rejim, hakl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruma m\u00fccadelesinin ekonomik etkilerini, alenen ink\u00e2r etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0130statistiklere g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019de g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131la oranla y\u00fczde 5,9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. G\u0131da kalemlerindeki fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri, T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyen temel fakt\u00f6rler oldu. Domuz eti fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 17,3, taze sebze y\u00fczde 12,7 ve taze meyve y\u00fczde 9,1 oran\u0131nda geriledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7in\u2019in y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu y\u0131l\u0131n Ocak ay\u0131na kadar genel bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimindeydi. Art arda son d\u00f6rt ay boyunca d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Ocak ay\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, deflasyonun artan bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerek, Eyl\u00fcl 2009\u2019dan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bu arada, \u00fclkenin sanayi \u00fcreticisi fiyat endeksi (\u00dcFE) de Ocak ay\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,5, ayl\u0131k bazda ise y\u00fczde 0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ancak resmi istatistikler, \u00c7KP\u2019nin 2021 ile 2023 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda piyasaya yakla\u015f\u0131k 54 trilyon yuan (7,6 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7ok Fazla Para Bas\u0131ld\u0131<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

2023\u2019\u00fcn sonunda \u00c7in\u2019in genel para (M2) bilan\u00e7osu 292,27 trilyon yuan (41,14 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131) idi. 2022\u2019nin sonunda M2 bilan\u00e7osu 266,43 trilyon yuan (38,15 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131) idi. 2021\u2019in sonunda ise M2 bilan\u00e7osu 238,29 trilyon yuan (37,4 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131) seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yukar\u0131daki rakamlara dayanarak, \u00c7KP piyasaya muhtemelen 2023\u2019te ek 25,84 trilyon yuan (3,63 trilyon ABD Dolar\u0131). Benzer \u015fekilde 2022\u2019de de 28,14 trilyon yuan (4,03 trilyon ABD Dolar\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Toplamda \u00c7KP iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 53,98 trilyon yuan (7,66 trilyon ABD Dolar\u0131) bast\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Genel para (M2), dola\u015f\u0131mdaki toplam para miktar\u0131 ile vadesiz mevduat, vadeli mevduat ve tasarruf mevduat\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131 olarak hesaplan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7inli vergi uzman\u0131 Ma Jinghao, \u015eubat 2023\u2019te \u00c7in merkezli sosyal medya platformu Weibo\u2019da bir payla\u015f\u0131m yay\u0131nlad\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in 2022\u2019de piyasaya toplam 28 trilyon yuan s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bu rakam\u0131n ABD, Japonya ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin toplam\u0131na e\u015fit oldu\u011funu bildirdi. Ancak bununla birlikte \u00c7in\u2019in GSY\u0130H\u2019s\u0131 ABD\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 70\u2019i kadar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBu \u00e7ok fazla para bas\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor\u201d dedi. \u201cBu kadar para arz\u0131na ra\u011fmen borsa neden y\u00fckselmiyor, konut fiyatlar\u0131 ve genel olarak fiyatlar y\u00fckselmiyor?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lu Yuanxing, ABD\u2019de ya\u015fayan siyaset ve ekonomi analistidir ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00c7in\u2019de \u015firket y\u00f6neticili\u011fi yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7KP\u2019nin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00c7in ekonomisinde deflasyon meydana geldi\u011fini \u015fiddetle reddetti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu s\u00f6ylemin, \u00fclkenin ekonomik toparlanma m\u00fccadelesi verdi\u011fi salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemden bu yana s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lu 16 \u015eubat\u2019ta The Epoch Times\u2019a verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi: \u201cDeflasyon elbette ekonomik darbo\u011fazdan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Ancak ger\u00e7ek \u015fu ki, \u00c7in ekonomisi geleneksel Bat\u0131 ekonomisinin \u00e7er\u00e7evesine art\u0131k basit\u00e7e uygulanamaz. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, art\u0131k geleneksel enflasyon veya deflasyon kavram\u0131na uymuyor. Ancak \u00c7KP\u2019nin otoriter rejiminin kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda benzersiz bir ekonomik model haline geldi.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mevduata D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen Krediler<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Lu, \u00c7in ekonomik paradoksu nedir ve nas\u0131l ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 sorular\u0131n\u0131 cevaplad\u0131. Lu\u2019ya g\u00f6re, Bat\u0131l\u0131 liberal ekonomilerde para arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n genellikle enflasyona neden oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ve bunun tersi de ge\u00e7erli. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00dcFE\u2019deki art\u0131\u015f enflasyonun bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak kabul edilirken, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de deflasyon olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Ancak \u00c7in\u2019de para arz\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artarken T\u00dcFE\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tuhaf ve \u00e7eli\u015fkili bir durum var. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, rejim piyasaya daha fazla para s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, ekonomik modellere meydan okuyarak, deflasyon meydana geliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBunun nedeni \u00c7in ekonomisinin bir piyasa ekonomisi olmamas\u0131d\u0131r\u201d diye ekledi. \u201cAyr\u0131ca, \u00c7KP i\u00e7inde \u00e7ok say\u0131da yolsuzlu\u011fa bula\u015fm\u0131\u015f memur var. Bu yetkililer her zaman kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fclke ve halk\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutacaklard\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla para fazlas\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131, partinin her kademesindeki yetkililer taraf\u0131ndan kendi ceplerine aktar\u0131ld\u0131.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7KP\u2019nin resmi verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00c7KP\u2019nin 2023\u2019te piyasaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni para miktar\u0131, toplam mevduat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle neredeyse tam olarak e\u015fle\u015fiyor. Rejimin merkezi ekonomisi alt\u0131nda yeni bas\u0131lan paralar, dola\u015f\u0131ma girmedi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma potansiyeli olan yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi. Bunun yerine, \u00c7in\u2019in mevduat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi basit\u00e7e, rejimin artan para arz\u0131na uygun bir h\u0131zda artt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lu, \u201c\u00c7KP\u2019nin yeni bast\u0131\u011f\u0131 paralar kredi olarak serbest b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131 ve bu fonlar daha sonra mevduata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u201d diye a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u201c\u00c7in\u2019de \u015firketler ve rejime ait kurumlar, kredilerin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 80\u2019ini al\u0131yor. Bu da paran\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlukla \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck devlet m\u00fclkiyetindeki i\u015fletmelerine (K\u0130T\u2019lere) gitti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBu fonlar, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olan emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fc gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcme yaratacak yerlere yat\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00e2rl\u0131 olma ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu \u00e7ok iyi biliyorlard\u0131. Bu nedenle kredilerin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 mevduat olarak tutuldu. Bir k\u0131sm\u0131 da rejim i\u00e7indeki zengin ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcler aras\u0131nda payla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu fonlar fiilen dola\u015f\u0131ma girmedi.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Halk\u0131n Harcayacak Paras\u0131 Yok<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Verilere g\u00f6re 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu itibar\u0131yla \u00c7in kredileri 22,75 trilyon yuan (3,23 trilyon $) artt\u0131. Konut kredileri 4,33 trilyon yuan (0,61 trilyon $) artarak y\u0131ll\u0131k kredilerin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 19\u2019unu olu\u015fturdu. \u015eirketlere ve rejime ait kurumlara verilen krediler ise 17,91 trilyon yuan (2,54 trilyon $) artarak y\u0131ll\u0131k yeni kredilerin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 78\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Devlete ait \u015firketlere verilen krediler aras\u0131nda orta ve uzun vadeli krediler \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. 13,57 trilyon yuan (1,93 trilyon $) de\u011ferindeki bu art\u0131\u015f, b\u00fct\u00fcn \u015firketlere verilen kredilerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 76\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra k\u0131sa vadeli kredilerin pay\u0131 \u00e7ok daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckt\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Genel olarak, orta ve uzun vadeli krediler sabit varl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi alanlarda kullan\u0131lma e\u011filimindeydi. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra k\u0131sa vadeli krediler, \u00fcretim ve i\u015fletme i\u00e7in likidite ihtiyac\u0131nda kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lu\u2019ya g\u00f6re, \u00c7in ekonomisi son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r \u015fiddetli deflasyon ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00c7KP umutsuzca para bas\u0131yor. Rejim h\u00e2l\u00e2 daha fazla para basman\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi te\u015fvik edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ancak Lu, \u00c7in\u2019in mevcut en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorununun harcama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn olmamas\u0131 oldu\u011fu konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cT\u00fcketim azl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n nedenlerinden biri de n\u00fcfusun \u00e7ok azalmas\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla daha az insan\u0131n daha az para harcamas\u0131\u201d dedi. \u201cPandemi s\u0131ras\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok insan \u00f6ld\u00fc ve \u00c7KP ger\u00e7e\u011fi \u00f6rtbas ediyor.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli sebep ise halk\u0131n harcayacak paras\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00c7KP\u2019nin yolsuzlu\u011fu, halka ait olmas\u0131 gereken paray\u0131 s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Pandemi sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde mevcut azalan ekonomi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00c7in halk\u0131 daha fazla para harcama konusunda olduk\u00e7a isteksiz. Bunun en \u00f6nemli nedeni ise gelece\u011fe dair iyimser olmamalar\u0131. \u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yazanlar: <\/em>Jessica Mao ve Michael Zhuang, The Epoch Times<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c7eviren:<\/em> Hatice Atmaca, The Epoch Times T\u00fcrkiye<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in Ekonomik Paradoksu \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fclecek mi? Deflasyonun Kafa Kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 Dinamikleri ve \u00c7KP\u2019nin Piyasaya Para S\u00fcrmesi \u00c7in\u2019in Ocak ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0,8 d\u00fc\u015ferek ekonomide deflasyon riskinin devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Ancak 2021 ile 2023 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in para otoritesi piyasaya yakla\u015f\u0131k 54 trilyon yuan (7,6 trilyon ABD dolar\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Para […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12379,"featured_media":150031,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"\u00c7in Ekonomik Paradoksu","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"\u00c7in Ekonomik Paradoksu \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fclecek mi? Deflasyonun Kafa Kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 Dinamikleri ve \u00c7KP\u2019nin Piyasaya Para S\u00fcrmesi","_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":"","_yoast_wpseo_focuskw_text_input":""},"categories":[8,519,1,2044],"tags":[170,8355,8356],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c7in Ekonomik Paradoksu - The Epoch Times TR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00c7in Ekonomik Paradoksu \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fclecek mi? 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