{"id":151672,"date":"2024-05-10T00:23:42","date_gmt":"2024-05-09T21:23:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/?p=151672"},"modified":"2024-05-10T00:23:43","modified_gmt":"2024-05-09T21:23:43","slug":"merkez-bankasi-enflasyon-tahminini-yukseltti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/merkez-bankasi-enflasyon-tahminini-yukseltti","title":{"rendered":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 Enflasyon Tahminini Y\u00fckseltti"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon raporu bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bankan\u0131n de\u011ferlendirme ve tahminlerini payla\u015f\u0131yor. TCMB, 2024 sonu enflasyon tahminini iki puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 38’e y\u00fckseltti.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon raporu bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan sat\u0131r ba\u015flar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:
Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n temel amac\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektir. Fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon beklentilerini yak\u0131ndan takip ediyoruz.
Enflasyon hedeflerimizle uyumlu seviyelere gerileyene kadar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fumuzu korumakta kararl\u0131y\u0131z. Enflasyon beklentilerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bozulmaya kesinlikle izin vermeyece\u011fiz.
K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmede 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde genele yay\u0131lan bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlenmektedir.
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve s\u0131k\u0131 politika \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan k\u00fcresel risk fakt\u00f6rleridir. K\u00fcresel enflasyon hedeflerin \u00fczerinde seyretmeye devam etmektedir, merkez bankalar\u0131 parasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 korumaktad\u0131r.
Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha ge\u00e7 ve daha yava\u015f faiz indirimine gidece\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentiler bir \u00f6nceki rapor d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015ftir. Son d\u00f6nemde geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerden portf\u00f6y \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmi\u015ftir.
Yurt i\u00e7i talepte diren\u00e7 s\u00fcrerken baz\u0131 normalle\u015fme i\u015faretleri mevcuttur. Net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye negatif katk\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131. Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n i\u00e7 talebe etkilerini \u00e7e\u015fitli g\u00f6stergeler \u00fczerinden yak\u0131ndan takip etmekteyiz. Arz ko\u015fullar\u0131 talep ko\u015fullar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir seyir izlemektedir.
\u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte bir miktar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmektedir. PMI verileri ikinci \u00e7eyrekte \u00fcretimde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Toplam talep ko\u015fullar\u0131 enflasyonist d\u00fczeyde seyretmektedir. \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 dezenflasyonist s\u00fcrecinin \u00f6nemli bir bile\u015feni olacak.
Cari i\u015flemler dengesindeki iyile\u015fme devam ediyor. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 talebi dengeleyecek.
Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda, parasal aktar\u0131m\u0131n gecikmeli etkisiyle i\u00e7 talepte zay\u0131flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, cari dengede iyile\u015fmenin devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.
T\u00fcketici enflasyonu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri ana e\u011filimde gerilemeye i\u015faret etmektedir. Enflasyon nisanda y\u00fczde 69,38 ile tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 0,9 puan \u00fczerinde tamamlad\u0131.
\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimizin aksine y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde toplam talep ko\u015fullar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmi\u015f, kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Reel \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 talebi destekledi.
Ana e\u011filimdeki y\u00fcksek seyirde hizmet fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n rol\u00fc belirgindir. Son d\u00f6nemde hizmetler grubundaki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer gruplara k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hizmet enflasyonu ayl\u0131k bazda yava\u015flamakla birlikte y\u00fcksek bir seyir izlemektedir. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde de hizmet enflasyonu man\u015fet enflasyonun \u00fczerindedir.
Konut piyasas\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeleri \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge olarak yak\u0131ndan takip ediyoruz. Konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi yava\u015flamaktad\u0131r. Konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin alt\u0131nda seyretmektedir.
Konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde gecikmeli olarak kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 beklenmektedir.
Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n beklentiler \u00fczerindeki etkisi yak\u0131ndan takip edilmektedir. Enflasyon beklentilerinin tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yak\u0131nsamas\u0131, dezenflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nemdedir. Kararlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerinde iyile\u015fme sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, piyasa beklentileri ile ara hedefimiz aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n kapanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.
Parasal duru\u015f belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Parasal aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen ve g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Likidite geli\u015fmelerini yak\u0131ndan takip ederek, sterilizasyon ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 gerekti\u011finde etkin bir \u015fekilde kullanaca\u011f\u0131z. Miktarsal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ile fazla likidite sterilize edilmektedir.
Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma finans piyasalar\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131yor. Kredi faizlerinin geldi\u011fi seviye i\u00e7 talebin yava\u015flamas\u0131na destek verecek. T\u00fcketici kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi zay\u0131flamaktad\u0131r.
Son verilen yabanc\u0131 para mevduat\u0131ndan TL mevduat\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fin h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Parasal politika duru\u015fumuz ve makroihtiyati \u00e7er\u00e7eve mevduat faizlerinin TL’ye ge\u00e7i\u015fi destekleyecek seviyelerde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve tasarruflar\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak.
TL mevduat pay\u0131 artmaya devam etmektedir. Son d\u00f6nemde yabanc\u0131 para kredilerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.
G\u0131da enflasyonu 2024 sonu tahmini y\u00fczde 34,6’dan y\u00fczde 35,5’e, y\u0131l sonu man\u015fet enflasyonu tahminini y\u00fczde 36’dan y\u00fczde 38’e y\u00fckseltiyoruz. 2025 sonu enflasyonu tahminini y\u00fczde 14’te, 2026 sonu tahminini y\u00fczde 9’da sabit b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz.
2024 ham petrol fiyat\u0131 tahminimizi \u00f6nceki rapordaki 83,6 dolardan 86,4 dolara y\u00fckseltiyoruz.
Haziran’dan itibaren ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde enflasyonu belirledi\u011fimiz ara hedeflerle uyumlu olacak \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ne gerekiyorsa yapmaya devam edece\u011fiz.
Enflasyonda zirveyi may\u0131s ay\u0131nda g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. \u015eu anki hesaplar\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re baz etkisi ve do\u011falgaz etkisiyle enflasyonda zirvenin y\u00fczde 75-76 civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131sta B ve C endekslerinin y\u00fczde 3’\u00fcn biraz alt\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.
\u0130lk d\u00f6rt ayda 4 puana yak\u0131n ilave enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, bunu tamamen telafi etmek ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ile dahi pek kolay g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.
Marttaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n etkisini \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k; enflasyon hedefinde \u00fcst band\u0131 a\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kanaatinde de\u011filiz. (TCMB Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Ak\u00e7ay)
Y\u00f6netilen y\u00f6nlendirilen fiyatlar\u0131n belirlenmesi hususu da \u00f6nemli, harcamalarla ilgili tasarruf tedbirleri haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u0130kinci devrede ve 2025 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde bundan destek alaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.
Likidite y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz biriktirdik\u00e7e swaplar\u0131 kapatt\u0131k ama swap bakiyesi yetersiz olabiliyor. Likidite fazlas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz, bir s\u00fcre depo ihaleleriyle devam edece\u011fiz. Likidite y\u00f6netimi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli.
Kredi kartlar\u0131nda sadece azami faizi d\u00fczenleme yetkimiz var, yak\u0131nda bir ayarlama yapt\u0131k, veriler bunun harcamalar\u0131 epey makulle\u015ftirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eu a\u015famada kredi kart\u0131 faizleri konusunda ek \u00f6nleme ihtiya\u00e7 yok
KKM 70 milyar dolara indi, bu miktar\u0131n y\u00fczde 90-95’i d\u00f6viz d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc KKM; bundan sonra kademeli bir azal\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u015eeffafl\u0131k ad\u0131na d\u00f6viz cinsi olarak da yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiririz.
Bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k mevduat faizi ortalama y\u00fczde 67-68 civar\u0131nda; TL’de ciddi bir reel getiri oldu\u011fu a\u015fikar.
Piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 bozmayacak \u015fekilde d\u00f6viz al\u0131m\u0131 yaparak rezerv pozisyonumuzu d\u00fczeltmeye gayret ediyoruz. D\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem TL’ye \u00e7ok talep olunca bizim i\u00e7in rezerv biriktirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 oluyor. Kur ve rezerv korusunda bir hedefimiz yok.
Asgari \u00fccret konusu TCMB uhdesinde de\u011fil, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bir tavsiye verilmesi s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. \u015eu anda \u00fccretlerin y\u00fcksek enflasyondan dolay\u0131 erimesi s\u00f6z konusu, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yapmam\u0131z gereken dezenflasyonu sa\u011flamak.
\u00dcst kup\u00fcr banknota ihtiya\u00e7 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00e7ok fakt\u00f6re ba\u011fl\u0131, ihtiya\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse gerekli ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ataca\u011f\u0131z.
TL’de para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde bir miktar reel de\u011ferlenme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ama bir tahmin vermem do\u011fru olmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon sunumu sonras\u0131 gazetecilerden gelen sorular\u0131na yan\u0131t verdi. Karahan y\u00fcksek enflasyonla g\u00fcndeme gelen 500 ve bin TL\u2019lik banknotlar gelece\u011fine dair soru \u00fczerine \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cParan\u0131n kendisi ortada yokken bununla uyumlu makinas\u0131 nas\u0131l oluyor bilmiyorum. \u00dcst banknota ihtiya\u00e7 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir\u00e7ok fakt\u00f6re ba\u011fl\u0131. Teknik de\u011ferlendirmelere g\u00f6re karar veriyoruz. Tedav\u00fcldeki kup\u00fcr kompozisyonunun de\u011fi\u015fimlerini de dikkate al\u0131yoruz. Analizler sonucunda ihtiya\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse gerekli ad\u0131mlar\u0131 ataca\u011f\u0131z.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/x.com\/Merkez_Bankasi\/status\/1788471970918535609<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/x.com\/Merkez_Bankasi\/status\/1788484274225647967<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon raporu bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bankan\u0131n de\u011ferlendirme ve tahminlerini payla\u015f\u0131yor. TCMB, 2024 sonu enflasyon tahminini iki puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 38’e y\u00fckseltti. Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon raporu bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan sat\u0131r ba\u015flar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n temel amac\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektir. Fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyon […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12791,"featured_media":151673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 Enflasyon Tahminini Y\u00fckseltti","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"","_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":"","_yoast_wpseo_focuskw_text_input":""},"categories":[8225,1,8138,37],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nMerkez Bankas\u0131 Enflasyon Tahminini Y\u00fckseltti - The Epoch Times TR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/merkez-bankasi-enflasyon-tahminini-yukseltti\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Merkez Bankas\u0131 Enflasyon Tahminini Y\u00fckseltti - The Epoch Times TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon raporu bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bankan\u0131n de\u011ferlendirme ve tahminlerini payla\u015f\u0131yor. TCMB, 2024 sonu enflasyon tahminini iki puan art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 38’e y\u00fckseltti. Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Karahan, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon raporu bilgilendirme toplant\u0131s\u0131nda konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan sat\u0131r ba\u015flar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n temel amac\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektir. 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