{"id":57980,"date":"2012-05-10T09:28:10","date_gmt":"2012-05-10T06:28:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/?p=57980"},"modified":"2013-08-23T17:18:54","modified_gmt":"2013-08-23T14:18:54","slug":"marmara-depremi-2014te-mi-gerceklesecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmara-depremi-2014te-mi-gerceklesecek","title":{"rendered":"Marmara Depremi 2014’te Mi Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/h3>\n
\"\"
D\u00fczce Depremi (deprem.gov.tr)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Prof. Dr. Ahmet Mete I\u015f\u0131kara Olas\u0131 Marmara Depremi \u0130\u00e7in 2014 Y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Kandilli Rasathanesi eski m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc ve halen AHDER (Afete Haz\u0131rl\u0131k ve Deprem E\u011fitimi Derne\u011fi) Onursal Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olanProf. Dr. Ahmet Mete I\u015f\u0131kara olas\u0131l\u0131klardan yola \u00e7\u0131karak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplamaya g\u00f6re beklenen\u00a0\u00a0Marmara Depremi<\/em>\u2019nin 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. I\u015f\u0131kara, \u2018\u2018Marmara\u2019da bir deprem tehlikesi var. Bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm var. \u0130\u015fte o zaman \u0130stanbul, depremi ya\u015fayacak. 1900\u2019den \u00f6nceki verileri de alarak bu olas\u0131l\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z zaman kar\u015f\u0131ma \u00e7\u0131kan manzara \u015fu:2014\u201ddedi.<\/p>\n

I\u015f\u0131kara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu Marmara Depremi<\/em>\u2019nin olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131:<\/p>\n

\u201cS\u00f6zlerimi \u00a0iyi okumak laz\u0131m. Marmara\u2019da hem aletsel, hem de tarihsel d\u00f6nemde olan 9-10 \u015fiddetindeki depremlere uyarlanan bir matematiksel olas\u0131l\u0131k fonksiyonu ile ula\u015ft\u0131m. B\u00fcy\u00fck depremler ve b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler aras\u0131nda olan zaman aral\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bu fonksiyona uyarlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu noktay\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ne kadar var ise olmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da o kadar var. Bazen beyanlar yanl\u0131\u015f alg\u0131lan\u0131yor. Ben bir uyar\u0131 yapmak istiyorum. Bu y\u00f6ntem bilim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fildir, bu form\u00fcl matematikseldir. Ben kafamdan uydurmuyorum. Bu fonsiyondan yararlanarak Japonya\u2019da da uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu bir uyar\u0131d\u0131r, bizim bu depreme haz\u0131rlanmam\u0131z laz\u0131m. Kimseyi tedirgin etme derdim yok, ben uyar\u0131yorum. 2014 fonsiyonunun art\u0131 eksisi var, ben ifade etmedim bunu. \u2018Olabilir de, olmayabilir de\u2019 diye beyan ettim. Olmazsa da \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmam. \u0130n\u015faat firmas\u0131n\u0131n \u2018\u0130sthanbul evleri\u2019nin reklam\u0131nda oynad\u0131m. \u0130stanbul Beylikd\u00fcz\u00fc\u2019nde d\u00f6rt d\u00f6rtl\u00fck bir site yapt\u0131k, bu siteyi yaparken di\u011fer in\u015faat firmalar\u0131na da \u00f6rnek olmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fim bir proje oldu. Yap\u0131 denetim sistemini biz se\u00e7tik, bunu bizim se\u00e7memiz, \u015eehircilik Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na \u0131\u015f\u0131k tuttu. \u0130n\u015faat yapanlar\u0131n se\u00e7ti\u011fi yap\u0131 denetim \u015firketleri in\u015faata gitmeden denetletiyor, imzalat\u0131yorlard\u0131. Biz bunu de\u011fi\u015ftirdik.\u2019\u2019<\/p>\n

\u00a0Deprem uzmanlar\u0131 ise I\u015f\u0131kara\u2019n\u0131n tahminini bilimsellikten uzak \u2018falc\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n

Yar. Do\u00e7. Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu: I\u015f\u0131kara\u2019n\u0131n Tahmini \u2018Falc\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 Olur<\/h4>\n

\u0130stanbul \u00dcniversitesi Jeofizik B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Yard. Do\u00e7. Dr. O\u011fuz G\u00fcndo\u011fdu, I\u015f\u0131kara\u2019n\u0131n Marmara\u2019da olabilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda olabilece\u011fi ile ilgili \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc i\u00e7in bu tar tahminler yapman\u0131n do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hocan\u0131n s\u00f6yleyi\u015f tarz\u0131n\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu, o b\u00f6lgedeki insanlar\u0131n bu durumdan \u00e7ok etkilendiklerini belirtti\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u2018\u2018Marmara ile ilgili bu kadar net \u015fey varsa bizlere de anlats\u0131n, bilimsel olarak biz de destekleyelim, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalara kat\u0131lal\u0131m. I\u015f\u0131kara Hoca\u2019n\u0131n 2014 demesinin bir bilimsel dayana\u011f\u0131 yok. Do\u011fru s\u00f6ylem \u2018tehlikenin oldu\u011funu\u2019 s\u00f6ylemektir, ama \u00e7izgiyi a\u015fmamak laz\u0131m. Depremlere istatistik \u00f6\u011fretilmez. Deprem uzmanlar\u0131 bilimsel olarak riskleri ve tehlikeyi her zaman s\u00f6ylenmeli ama tarih s\u00f6ylemek falc\u0131l\u0131k olur.\u201d Diye s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u0130T\u00dc Avrasya Yer Bilimleri Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr.Okan T\u00fcys\u00fcz: Bilim adam\u0131 riski g\u00f6sterir<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130statistik kullanarak hangi s\u0131kl\u0131kla deprem olabilece\u011finin tahmin edilebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyerek, \u2018\u2018En son 1755-1894 \u0130stanbul\u2019un iki b\u00fcy\u00fck depremi bunlardan, itibaren ge\u00e7en zamana ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak gelecekte ne zaman deprem olabilir bunu s\u00f6yleyebilirsiniz ama do\u011fa hi\u00e7bir zaman d\u00fczenli davranmaz, bir fay 250 senede bir deprem \u00fcretir, ama bu 150 ile 600 y\u0131l aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fir. Ortalamas\u0131 250 senedir.\u2019\u2019 dedi.T\u00fcys\u00fcz, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik tarih vermenin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve tarih vermeyi do\u011fru ve g\u00fcvenilir bulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Vatan Gazetesi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prof. Dr. Ahmet Mete I\u015f\u0131kara Olas\u0131 Marmara Depremi \u0130\u00e7in 2014 Y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc Kandilli Rasathanesi eski m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc ve halen AHDER (Afete Haz\u0131rl\u0131k ve Deprem E\u011fitimi Derne\u011fi) Onursal Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olanProf. Dr. Ahmet Mete I\u015f\u0131kara olas\u0131l\u0131klardan yola \u00e7\u0131karak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplamaya g\u00f6re beklenen\u00a0\u00a0Marmara Depremi\u2019nin 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. I\u015f\u0131kara, \u2018\u2018Marmara\u2019da bir deprem tehlikesi var. Bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcm var. \u0130\u015fte o […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":58003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"","_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":"","_yoast_wpseo_focuskw_text_input":""},"categories":[519,37],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nMarmara Depremi 2014'te Mi Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek? - The Epoch Times TR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmara-depremi-2014te-mi-gerceklesecek\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Marmara Depremi 2014'te Mi Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek? - The Epoch Times TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prof. Dr. Ahmet Mete I\u015f\u0131kara Olas\u0131 Marmara Depremi \u0130\u00e7in 2014 Y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc Kandilli Rasathanesi eski m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc ve halen AHDER (Afete Haz\u0131rl\u0131k ve Deprem E\u011fitimi Derne\u011fi) Onursal Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olanProf. Dr. Ahmet Mete I\u015f\u0131kara olas\u0131l\u0131klardan yola \u00e7\u0131karak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesaplamaya g\u00f6re beklenen\u00a0\u00a0Marmara Depremi\u2019nin 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. 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