{"id":58444,"date":"2012-05-28T23:18:17","date_gmt":"2012-05-28T20:18:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/?p=58444"},"modified":"2013-08-23T17:17:40","modified_gmt":"2013-08-23T14:17:40","slug":"cin-hukumeti-acil-bir-sorunla-karsi-karsiya-ekonomik-kriz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/cin-hukumeti-acil-bir-sorunla-karsi-karsiya-ekonomik-kriz","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in H\u00fck\u00fcmeti Acil Bir Sorunla Kar\u015f\u0131 Kar\u015f\u0131ya: \u201cEkonomik Kriz\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Epoch Times muhabiri Qin Yu-fei taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rland\u0131<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"
Washington Post\u2019taki bir makaleye g\u00f6re, \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bir ba\u015fka acil sorunla daha kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak: \u201cEkonomik kriz\u201d. Resimde, Pekin\u2019de bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc yer almaktad\u0131r. (PEd Jones\/AFP\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Washington Post\u2019da yay\u0131nlanan bir makaleye g\u00f6re \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, Bo Xilai olay\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi siyasi krizden \u00e7\u0131ksa bile, bir ba\u015fka ve daha acil bir sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak: Ekonomik kriz. \u00c7in\u2019in ilerlemesini sa\u011flayacak mevcut\u00a0t\u00fcm fakt\u00f6rler \u00e7oktan geriledi ve \u00c7in ekonomisi yava\u015flayacak. Fakat \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, e\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flarsa, \u00c7in ekonomisindeki sorununun b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle siyasi soruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilecek olmas\u0131ndan endi\u015feleniyor.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi h\u0131zl\u0131 tren gibi yava\u015flayacak<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Washington Post\u2019ta 23 May\u0131s tarihinde yay\u0131nlanan CNN haber ajans\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7apta \u00fcnl\u00fc yorumcusu Bay Fareed Zakaria\u2019n\u0131n makalesine g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7mi\u015f yirmi y\u0131l boyunca \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derecede dengesiz ve yanl\u0131\u015f politikalar y\u00fcz\u00fcnden,\u00a0hemen hemen\u00a0her y\u0131l uzmanlar taraf\u0131ndan \u00c7in ekonomisinin \u00e7\u00f6kece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131lmakta. Uzmanlar, \u00c7in\u2019deki anormal krediler, bankalar\u0131n elindeki \u00f6denmeyen bor\u00e7lar, verimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck devlet te\u015febb\u00fcsleri ve emlak balonu gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli sorunlara i\u015faret etmekte. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f yirmi sene i\u00e7inde \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rakamlara g\u00f6re, \u00c7in ekonomisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %9.5\u2019a ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fakat bir\u00e7ok uzman, \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu rakam\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fi yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hemfikir.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu sorumlusu Ruchir Shama yeni kitab\u0131nda, \u201c\u00c7in \u015fu anda do\u011fal olarak yava\u015flaman\u0131n k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131nda. Bu, ekonomiden politikaya kadar t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyadaki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir\u201d yorumunda bulundu.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme harika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor, fakat tarihteki ilk \u00f6rnek bu de\u011fil. Japonya, G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayvan da ge\u00e7mi\u015fte yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 h\u0131zla 20 sene boyunca b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam etmi\u015fler ve ondan sonra yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok ki\u015fi \u00c7in\u2019in gelece\u011finin, ekonomisi 1970\u2019lerde senede % 6\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015fen, 1990\u2019larda duran ve ondan sonra da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck h\u0131zla devam eden Japonya\u2019ya benzeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayvan da buna benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7ten ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki bu \u00f6rneklerden, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden ortalama bir kazan\u00e7 elde edilebilir. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde maddi kayna\u011fa ve orta derece bir giri\u015fime sahip bir ki\u015finin, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 derece h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi olduk\u00e7a zor olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Global hammaddeler b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda t\u00fckenmekte<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Sharma yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir hesapla, \u201c1998 y\u0131l\u0131nda, \u00c7in ekonomisi on bin dolarl\u0131k bir \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi baz alarak %10 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 elde etti ve 100 milyar dolarl\u0131k ekonomiyi d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek mecburiyetinde kald\u0131, fakat d\u00fcnya end\u00fcstriyel emtias\u0131 sadece %10 t\u00fckendi \u2013buradaki hammaddeler ise petrol, bak\u0131r ve demirden ibaretti. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi sadece 5 trilyon dolar, e\u011fer ayn\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 tutturmak isterse, o zaman ekonomiyi d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in 550 milyar dolara ihtiya\u00e7 duymas\u0131 ve 30\u2019dan fazla global emtia t\u00fcketmesi gerekirdi.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tek \u00e7ocuk politikas\u0131 \u00fclkeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcc\u00fc yetersizli\u011fi getirdi<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in ilerlemesini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00fcn fakt\u00f6rler \u00e7oktan geriledi. \u00c7in ge\u00e7en sene kentle\u015fmi\u015f bir \u00fclke oldu ve n\u00fcfusun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu \u015fehirlerde ya\u015f\u0131yor. Herkesin bildi\u011fi, \u201cfazla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcc\u00fc deposu\u201d olan \u00c7in yak\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcc\u00fcnde yetersiz kalacak.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7mi\u015f on y\u0131l boyunca, sadece 5 milyon ki\u015fi \u00c7in\u2019deki ana \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma g\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131ld\u0131, yani ge\u00e7mi\u015f on senedeki 90 milyonluk rakam h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tek \u00e7ocuk politikas\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden, emekli olacak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n yerini dolduracak ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131 yetersiz.<\/p>\n

Ekonomik te\u015fvik \u00f6nlemleri \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131yor ve ekonomik sorunlar siyasi soruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Sharma\u2019n\u0131n tasvir etti\u011fi \u00c7in\u2019in gelece\u011fine dair g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc ile \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durum ayn\u0131 sonuca \u00e7\u0131kmakta. \u00c7in Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Wen Jiabao, 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki h\u00fck\u00fcmet raporunda, \u00c7in ekonomisinin \u201cdengesiz, uygunsuz ve devam ettirilemez\u201d oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015fti. O, bu hafta ayn\u0131 konudan bir kez daha bahsetti ve h\u00fck\u00fcmete ekonomik te\u015fvik \u00f6nlemlerini kullanmak i\u00e7in seslendi.<\/p>\n

Ekonomiyi te\u015fvik etmek i\u00e7in, merkez bankas\u0131 faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutabilir ve b\u00f6ylece h\u00fck\u00fcmet fazla paray\u0131 harcayabilir. Fakat bu \u00f6nlemler de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Sharma\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u00c7in, k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde GDP borcunun sadece %30\u2019luk k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi, fakat e\u011fer \u00c7in firmalar\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da d\u00e2hil edersek ki \u00f6zellikle bu firmalar\u0131n bir\u00e7o\u011fu devlete ait oldu\u011fundan, bu rakam olduk\u00e7a \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin harcamalar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlukla \u00fclkenin altyap\u0131s\u0131na ve bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlardan geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f \u00e7ok az olacak. \u00c7in\u2019deki t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor, fakat sosyal g\u00fcvenli\u011fi olmayan bir \u00fclkede ve gittik\u00e7e ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusun y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir toplumda, paralar\u0131n faiz kazanmak amac\u0131yla bankalara yat\u0131r\u0131lma oran\u0131 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n

Sharma, \u00c7in\u2019e %6\u2019l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n daha uygun oldu\u011funu tavsiye etti. Fakat \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti %8\u2019den fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131yla kendi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin yasall\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumak istiyor. E\u011fer h\u0131z geri kal\u0131rsa, \u00c7in\u2019deki ekonomik sorun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ihtimalle siyasi soruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Epoch Times muhabiri Qin Yu-fei taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rland\u0131 Washington Post\u2019da yay\u0131nlanan bir makaleye g\u00f6re \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, Bo Xilai olay\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi siyasi krizden \u00e7\u0131ksa bile, bir ba\u015fka ve daha acil bir sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak: Ekonomik kriz. \u00c7in\u2019in ilerlemesini sa\u011flayacak mevcut\u00a0t\u00fcm fakt\u00f6rler \u00e7oktan geriledi ve \u00c7in ekonomisi yava\u015flayacak. Fakat \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, e\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flarsa, \u00c7in ekonomisindeki […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":58446,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"","_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":"","_yoast_wpseo_focuskw_text_input":""},"categories":[8,2044],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c7in H\u00fck\u00fcmeti Acil Bir Sorunla Kar\u015f\u0131 Kar\u015f\u0131ya: \u201cEkonomik Kriz\u201d - The Epoch Times TR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/cin-hukumeti-acil-bir-sorunla-karsi-karsiya-ekonomik-kriz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c7in H\u00fck\u00fcmeti Acil Bir Sorunla Kar\u015f\u0131 Kar\u015f\u0131ya: \u201cEkonomik Kriz\u201d - The Epoch Times TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Epoch Times muhabiri Qin Yu-fei taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rland\u0131 Washington Post\u2019da yay\u0131nlanan bir makaleye g\u00f6re \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, Bo Xilai olay\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi siyasi krizden \u00e7\u0131ksa bile, bir ba\u015fka ve daha acil bir sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak: Ekonomik kriz. \u00c7in\u2019in ilerlemesini sa\u011flayacak mevcut\u00a0t\u00fcm fakt\u00f6rler \u00e7oktan geriledi ve \u00c7in ekonomisi yava\u015flayacak. Fakat \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, e\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015flarsa, \u00c7in ekonomisindeki […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/cin-hukumeti-acil-bir-sorunla-karsi-karsiya-ekonomik-kriz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Epoch Times TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/theepochtimestr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-05-28T20:18:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2013-08-23T14:17:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011y\/\u00c7in-H\u00fck\u00fcmeti-Ekonomik-Kriz1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"525\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"350\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"A. 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