{"id":62267,"date":"2012-10-12T09:55:56","date_gmt":"2012-10-12T06:55:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/?p=62267"},"modified":"2012-10-12T09:59:34","modified_gmt":"2012-10-12T06:59:34","slug":"marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama","title":{"rendered":"Marmara&#8217;da Deprem Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00dczerine A\u00e7\u0131klama"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_62268\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-62268\" style=\"width: 498px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-62268\" title=\"kandilli-info-deprem\" src=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011y\/kandilli-info-deprem.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"498\" height=\"250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011y\/kandilli-info-deprem.jpg 498w, https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011y\/kandilli-info-deprem-150x75.jpg 150w, https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011y\/kandilli-info-deprem-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011y\/kandilli-info-deprem-292x146.jpg 292w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 498px) 100vw, 498px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-62268\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kandilli&#8217;den deprem a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Ulusal Deprem \u0130zleme Merkezi M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Do\u011fan Kalafat, sosyal medyada Marmara B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde bu gece deprem beklendi\u011fi \u015feklinde yer alan iddialarla ilgili olarak,\u00a0\u201cBu iddialar\u0131 destekleyen ne bilimsel bir veri var, ne de anormallik arz eden bir durum bulunuyor\u201d dedi. Kalafat, \u201cBunlar, kulaktan kula\u011fa yay\u0131lan dedikodular. Halk\u0131m\u0131z bunlara itibar etmesin\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/em><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, medyada yer alan deprem kestirimleri ile ilgili haberler \u00fczerine yaz\u0131l\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u201cDeprem konusu hakl\u0131 nedenlerle toplumumuzda duyarl\u0131l\u0131k yaratmakta ve \u00e7e\u015fitli kurum veya ki\u015filerce bu y\u00f6nde yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar \u00f6nemli etkilere yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Enstit\u00fcm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn daha \u00f6nce yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda da belirtilmi\u015f oldu\u011fu gibi, depremler son derece karma\u015f\u0131k bir do\u011fal s\u00fcre\u00e7 sonucunda olu\u015fur ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fc bilgiler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda depremin olu\u015f zaman\u0131n\u0131n kestirimi konusunda g\u00fcvenilir bir tahmin y\u00fcr\u00fctmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Di\u011fer deyi\u015fle, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda depremler i\u00e7in genel kabul g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f herhangi bir zaman kestirim y\u00f6ntemi mevcut de\u011fildir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, depremin olaca\u011f\u0131 zamanla ilgili de\u011fi\u015fik tahminlerin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n toplum ile payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlenmektedir. Bu t\u00fcr tahminlerin bilimsel dayanaklar\u0131 da \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yeterli a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131kta belirtilmemektedir. Bilim eti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fcrettikleri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 kamuoyu ile payla\u015fmalar\u0131 ola\u011fan bir durum olsa da, bu t\u00fcr sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6nceden bilimsel ortamlarda her a\u00e7\u0131dan tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n aras\u0131ndan sadece bilimsel kabul g\u00f6renlerin kamuoyuna iletilmesi do\u011fru olan yoldur. Bilimsel d\u00fcnyan\u0131n denetiminden ge\u00e7memi\u015f veya tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n kesinlik kazanm\u0131\u015f gibi sunulmas\u0131 do\u011fru de\u011fildir\u201d ifadeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130stanbul\u2019un tarihi boyunca bir\u00e7ok y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 depreme maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u201cKenti 4. ve 19. y\u00fczy\u0131llar aras\u0131nda 32 adet hasar yap\u0131c\u0131 deprem etkilemi\u015ftir. Bu durum, ortalama her 50 y\u0131lda bir orta \u015fiddette bir depreme kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmektedir. Yakla\u015f\u0131k her 300 y\u0131lda bir ise \u0130stanbul \u00e7ok \u015fiddetli (MSK \u015fiddet \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine g\u00f6re IX) depremlere maruz kalmaktad\u0131r. Ancak buna bakarak gelecekte \u0130stanbul\u2019daki depremlerin mutlaka e\u015fit zaman aral\u0131klar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Nitekim, \u0130stanbul&#8217;u etkileyen depremler 3.-6. ve 14.-17. y\u00fczy\u0131l periyotlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek, 7.-13. y\u00fczy\u0131l periyodunda ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir olu\u015fum frekans\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Ana Marmara Fay\u0131\u2019ndaki deprem etkinli\u011finin en az\u0131ndan son birka\u00e7 milyon y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcregeldi\u011fini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurursak, sadece son 2000 y\u0131lda olu\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck depremlerden elde edilen ortalama yinelenme s\u00fcrelerine dayanarak bir zaman kestirimi yapman\u0131n tutars\u0131z bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olaca\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck hatalar i\u00e7erece\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Deprem olu\u015fumunun olas\u0131l\u0131ksal y\u00f6ntemler ile incelenmesi (yani belirli bir b\u00f6lgede, belirli b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki bir depremin, belirli bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde meydana gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n hesaplanmas\u0131) bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan tek bilimsel yakla\u015f\u0131md\u0131r. Sismisite analizleri, k\u00fcresel konum belirleme (GPS) y\u00f6ntemi ile elde edilen yerde\u011fi\u015ftirmeler, paleosismoloji ve gerilme analizleri kullan\u0131larak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u015fu kadar y\u0131l i\u00e7inde, \u015fu b\u00f6lgede, \u015fu mertebede bir depremin olabilece\u011fi, ancak belirli bir olas\u0131l\u0131k de\u011feri verilerek ifade edilebilir. Nitekim, benzer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar sonucunda Marmara Denizi\u2019nde 7 veya daha b\u00fcy\u00fck manyit\u00fcdl\u00fc bir depremin y\u0131ll\u0131k olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %2 (otuz y\u0131l i\u00e7inde olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60) olarak elde edilmektedir. D\u00fcnyada benzer y\u00fcksek deprem ihtimalini payla\u015fan di\u011fer iki kent Tokyo ve San Francisco\u2019dur\u201d denildi. A\u00e7\u0131klama \u015fu \u015fekilde son buldu:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u201cSonu\u00e7 olarak, depremin olu\u015f zaman\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceden tahmin edilmesinin olanaks\u0131z oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011finin toplumca benimsenmesi ve \u00e7e\u015fitli kurum, ki\u015fi ve medya taraf\u0131ndan bu y\u00f6nde yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n da bu bilin\u00e7le de\u011ferlendirilmesinin en do\u011fru yakla\u015f\u0131m olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Ulusal Deprem \u0130zleme Merkezi M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Do\u011fan Kalafat, sosyal medyada Marmara B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde bu gece deprem beklendi\u011fi \u015feklinde yer alan iddialarla ilgili olarak,\u00a0\u201cBu iddialar\u0131 destekleyen ne bilimsel bir veri var, ne de anormallik arz eden bir durum bulunuyor\u201d dedi. Kalafat, \u201cBunlar, kulaktan kula\u011fa yay\u0131lan dedikodular. Halk\u0131m\u0131z bunlara itibar etmesin\u201d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":62268,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"","_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":"","_yoast_wpseo_focuskw_text_input":""},"categories":[31,15],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Marmara&#039;da Deprem Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00dczerine A\u00e7\u0131klama - The Epoch Times TR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Marmara&#039;da Deprem Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00dczerine A\u00e7\u0131klama - The Epoch Times TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Ulusal Deprem \u0130zleme Merkezi M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Do\u011fan Kalafat, sosyal medyada Marmara B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde bu gece deprem beklendi\u011fi \u015feklinde yer alan iddialarla ilgili olarak,\u00a0\u201cBu iddialar\u0131 destekleyen ne bilimsel bir veri var, ne de anormallik arz eden bir durum bulunuyor\u201d dedi. 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Halk\u0131m\u0131z bunlara itibar etmesin\u201d [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Epoch Times TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/theepochtimestr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-10-12T06:55:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2012-10-12T06:59:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011y\/kandilli-info-deprem.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"498\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"250\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Nesrin Se\u00e7er\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@TheEpochTimesTR\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@TheEpochTimesTR\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Nesrin Se\u00e7er\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Nesrin Se\u00e7er\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/#\/schema\/person\/9449775713995720d2e8d6af219e3cc3\"},\"headline\":\"Marmara&#8217;da Deprem Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00dczerine A\u00e7\u0131klama\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-10-12T06:55:56+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-10-12T06:59:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama\"},\"wordCount\":734,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011y\/kandilli-info-deprem.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"B\u0130L\u0130M ve \u00d6TES\u0130\",\"YA\u015eAM TARZI\"],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/marmarada-deprem-olasiligi-uzerine-aciklama\",\"name\":\"Marmara'da Deprem Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00dczerine A\u00e7\u0131klama - 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Kalafat, \u201cBunlar, kulaktan kula\u011fa yay\u0131lan dedikodular. 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