{"id":90195,"date":"2016-03-24T09:53:04","date_gmt":"2016-03-24T06:53:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/?p=90195"},"modified":"2016-03-24T09:54:26","modified_gmt":"2016-03-24T06:54:26","slug":"cin-gayrimenkul-piyasasinda-dunya-capinda-nasil-sisme-yaratiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/epochtimestr.com\/index.php\/cin-gayrimenkul-piyasasinda-dunya-capinda-nasil-sisme-yaratiyor","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in Gayrimenkul Piyasas\u0131nda D\u00fcnya \u00c7ap\u0131nda Nas\u0131l \u015ei\u015fme Yarat\u0131yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\u00c7inli
\u00c7inli bir vatanda\u015f 15 Nisan 2013 tarihinde bir emlak b\u00fcrosunun \u00f6n\u00fcnde telefonla konu\u015fuyor. (Wang Zhao\/AFP\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00c7in ekonomisi sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fc ya\u015fayacak? \u00c7in\u2019in devlet ekonomik planlama ajans\u0131 m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Xu Shaoshi\u2019ye g\u00f6re, \u201cKesinlikle hay\u0131r!\u201d\u00a0 Kom\u00fcnist Parti\u2019nin fiili meclisi olan y\u0131ll\u0131k \u201c\u0130ki Toplant\u0131\u201d s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki bir bas\u0131n konferans\u0131nda Xu,\u00a0 \u00c7in ekonomisinin sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00a0ve \u00c7in\u2019in yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n da global ekonomiyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik yava\u015flamas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda ne kadar yaz\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131rsa yaz\u0131ls\u0131n, Xu\u2019nun de\u011ferlendirmesi bir cevab\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in Ekonomisinin D\u00fcnya \u00dczerindeki Etkisi<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>\u00d6ncelikle ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 30 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde, \u00c7in kalk\u0131nmay\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in \u201cd\u0131\u015far\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lma\u201d politikas\u0131 yoluyla yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi kabul etti. \u00c7in bundan sonra ucuz mallar\u0131 d\u00fcnyaya ihra\u00e7 edebilmek i\u00e7in D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne (WTO) kat\u0131ld\u0131. 1990lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda, \u00c7in yeterli kar ve g\u00fcce ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131ndaki kaynaklar\u0131 ve \u015firketleri ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in stratejik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ba\u015far\u0131dan \u00e7ok ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7land\u0131ysa da, \u00c7in\u2019in devasa sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n

Farkl\u0131 perspektiflerden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00fczerinde hem olumlu hem de olumsuz etkileri oldu. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019de ucuza \u00fcretilen mallar d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerindeki t\u00fcketicilere yedi ile sekiz y\u0131l fayda sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130ni\u015f ise, 2005 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda yetersiz standartlardaki ve toksik \u00fcr\u00fcnlere kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan boykotlarla ba\u015flad\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in itibar\u0131 sars\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde kur\u015fun ta\u015f\u0131yan oyuncaklar\u0131, melamin ile zehirlenmi\u015f s\u00fct tozu ve yem, tekstil, deri \u00fcr\u00fcnlerindeki pestisit kal\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ve di\u011fer toksik kal\u0131nt\u0131lar, problemli al\u00e7\u0131panlar ve dahas\u0131 takip etti. K\u0131sa zamanda, \u00c7in k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn s\u00fcrekli ele\u015ftirileri ve \u015fikayetlerine maruz kald\u0131 ve bu durum A.B.D.\u2019nin Trans-Pasifik Ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca sebebiydi \u2013 \u00c7in\u2019i saf d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131p ba\u015fka bir uluslararas\u0131 ticaret organizasyonu kurmak.<\/p>\n

2009\u2019dan beri, \u00c7in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n fabrikas\u0131 olmay\u0131 durdu\u011fundan beri, \u00c7in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en fazla para basan devleti haline geldi. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda, bu strateji art\u0131k daha fazla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez hale geldi\u011finde, \u00c7in 9,83 milyar metre karelik kullan\u0131ma haz\u0131r stok gayri menkul\u00fc ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcklenmi\u015f onlarca end\u00fcstrisi ile kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in, ticaretini d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda 30\u2019un \u00fczerindeki \u00fclke ile geni\u015fletmeyi planl\u0131yordu. Ama \u015fu anda bu \u00fclkeler ya karma\u015fa i\u00e7erisinde, ya sava\u015fta ya da ekonomik bir gerileme ya\u015f\u0131yor. Bunun sonucunda, \u00c7in, \u015fu anda ana ham madde ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 durumunda de\u011fil ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisini kontrol edememektedir. Elbette ki, kimse d\u00fcnya ekonmisini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekenin \u00c7in oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyemez ama \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fcnya ekonomisnin motoru olaca\u011f\u0131 hayali art\u0131k s\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Sermaye Ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve Gayrimenkul <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>\u00c7in\u2019n garimenkul pazar\u0131 da yan\u0131 zamanda d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkilemektedir. Pekin, \u015eangay ve \u015eenzen\u2019deki gayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131 son zamanlarda y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6rne\u011fin, \u015eenzen\u2019deki b\u00fct\u00fcn evlerin Pazar fiyat\u0131 14 milyar yuana t\u0131rmand\u0131 (2.4 milyar dolar) ki bu rakam neredeyse 14.8 milyar yuan (2.3 milyar dolar) de\u011ferindeki \u015eenzen hava liman\u0131n\u0131n \u00a0de\u011feri ile neredeyse e\u015fde\u011fer. Peki nas\u0131l oldu da ev fiyatlar\u0131 bu kadar artt\u0131? Bunun sebebi \u00c7inlilerin \u015fi\u015firilmi\u015f fiyatl\u0131 menkuller kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda nakit krediler \u00e7ekerek y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131 korumalar\u0131 ve bu paralar\u0131 \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in gayrimenkul pazar\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015far\u0131 ka\u00e7an i\u015fte bu sermaye d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n

Haziran 2014\u2019\u00fcn sonundan itibaren, \u00c7in\u2019in yabanc\u0131 d\u00f6viz sermayesi 3.99 trilyon dolard\u0131. O tarihten beri 790 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. Fonlar\u0131n d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir etkisi olacakt\u0131r. Bu para nereye gitti peki? Bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca gayri menkul olmak \u00fczere yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda kullan\u0131ld\u0131 ve bu da d\u00fcnya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131nda gayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

2015 \u00c7in \u0130\u015fletme K\u00fcreselle\u015fme Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re, \u00c7in gayrimenkul firmalar\u0131n\u0131n deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda 22 milyar dolard\u0131. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu rakam 40 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bu rakam\u0131n 28.6 milyar\u0131 A.B.D. pazar\u0131na akt\u0131. Vanke, Wanda ve Greenland Holding gibi devler di\u011fer \u00c7in gayrimenkul firmalar\u0131 ile birlikte 2015\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda da, 2014\u2019\u00fcn tamam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen kadar yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Haftal\u0131k Gaijing Ulusal dergisinde 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2015 tarihinde yay\u0131nlanan bir makaleye g\u00f6re zengin \u00c7inliler, \u0130ngiltere, Avustralya ve Dubai gibi bir d\u00fczine deniz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fclkelerden veya b\u00f6lgelerden ev sat\u0131n al\u0131yorlar. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u00c7inliler G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin Jeju adas\u0131nda 2009 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle 20.000 metrekare m\u00fclk sahibiydiler. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131 itibariyle, bu alan 11.73 milyon metrekareye ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bu da alt\u0131 y\u0131lda 600 kat de\u011ferinde bir art\u0131\u015f demektir.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in devlet darphaneleri taraf\u0131ndan bas\u0131lan para d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda dola\u015fmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019deki gayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131 as\u0131l de\u011ferlerinden \u00e7ok zaman \u00f6nce sapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Pekin, Tiyanjin, \u015eangay ve \u015eenzen\u2019deki 150 metrekarelik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir daire 6 milyon yuan (920.000$) olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyr. Bir ki\u015fi, bu kadar paraya A.B.D.\u2019nin do\u011fu veya bat\u0131 yakas\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019de alabilece\u011fi bir evin \u00fc\u00e7 kat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u00fcstelik bah\u00e7eli ve havuzlu bir ev alabilmekte (Manhattan ve San Francisco hari\u00e7). Bu ger\u00e7ekle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131nca, \u00c7in gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 d\u00fcnyay\u0131 elbette ki saracakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apta k\u00fcresel ticari mallar\u0131 sat\u0131n almamas\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisini ger\u00e7ekten a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmek anlam\u0131na gelmeyebilir. Buna ra\u011fmen,\u00a0 zengin \u00c7inliler di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin gayrimenkul piyasalar\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarlarda nakit yat\u0131rmalar\u0131 bir \u015fi\u015fmeye sebep olabilir. Bunun sonucunda, yerel halk\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc bir ev sat\u0131n almaya yetmedi\u011finden \u00fclke yoksullu\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenecektir. Bu durum da me\u015fru anlam\u0131yla k\u00fcresel ekonominin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesi olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lamaz m\u0131?<\/p>\n

Bu makale He Qinlian\u2019\u0131n kendi ki\u015fisel blo\u011funda 13 Mart 2016 tarihinde yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 makalenin k\u0131salt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir versiyonudur. He Qinglian tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f \u00c7inli bir yazar ve ekonomisttir. \u015eu anda A.B.D.\u2019de ya\u015fayan yazar\u0131n 1990 y\u0131llar\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019deki ekonomik reformlar s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki yozla\u015fmay\u0131 anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c\u00c7in\u2019deki Tuzaklar\u201d ve bas\u0131n \u00fczerindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlama ve manip\u00fclasyonu anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201c Sans\u00fcr\u2019\u00fcn Sisi: \u00c7in\u2019deki Medya Kontrol\u00fc\u201d adl\u0131 iki tane kitab\u0131 vard\u0131r. Qinlian \u00c7in\u2019in g\u00fcncel sosyal ve ekonomik konular\u0131 hakk\u0131nda yazmaktad\u0131r. <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in ekonomisi sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fc ya\u015fayacak? \u00c7in\u2019in devlet ekonomik planlama ajans\u0131 m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Xu Shaoshi\u2019ye g\u00f6re, \u201cKesinlikle hay\u0131r!\u201d\u00a0 Kom\u00fcnist Parti\u2019nin fiili meclisi olan y\u0131ll\u0131k \u201c\u0130ki Toplant\u0131\u201d s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki bir bas\u0131n konferans\u0131nda Xu,\u00a0 \u00c7in ekonomisinin sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00a0ve \u00c7in\u2019in yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n da global ekonomiyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik yava\u015flamas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda ne kadar yaz\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131rsa […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":90196,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_focuskw":"","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"","_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":"","_yoast_wpseo_focuskw_text_input":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c7in Gayrimenkul Piyasas\u0131nda D\u00fcnya \u00c7ap\u0131nda Nas\u0131l \u015ei\u015fme Yarat\u0131yor? 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